up:
What is a Doomsday Scenario?
A Doomsday Scenario is a mental model that involves deliberately imagining the worst possible outcome of a situation [1]. It’s a form of counterfactual simulation where, if something bad could happen, it will happen [1]. The purpose of this extreme pessimism is to help you realize that in most cases, things will likely turn out okay, and the potential threats are not truly life-or-death situations [1]. By externalizing and identifying your worst fears, you can understand that you might be overreacting [1]. Even if things do go wrong, they might not be as catastrophic as you imagined [1]. Creating your own “Doomsday scenario” can make your highly reactive mind work for you instead of against you [1].
Is it what Stoics taught about thinking about the worst-case scenario?
While the source doesn’t explicitly state that the “Doomsday Scenario” is a Stoic teaching, there are clear parallels to Stoic philosophy. Stoicism emphasizes enduring hardship with a calm and rational mind and focusing on what one can control [2]. By contemplating the worst-case scenario in a controlled way (the Doomsday Scenario), you are essentially preparing yourself mentally for potential challenges, which aligns with the Stoic principle of developing resilience in the face of external difficulties [2].
The practice of considering potential negative outcomes is a way to manage fear and anxiety, which are central themes in Stoicism. By actively thinking about what could go wrong, you can reduce the element of surprise and emotional reactivity if those things actually occur. This is similar to the Stoic practice of negative visualization, where one contemplates the loss of things they value to appreciate them more and prepare for their potential absence.
In essence, the Doomsday Scenario as described in the source, by making you confront and externalize your worst fears, helps you gain a more rational perspective and reduces the power of those fears over your actions [1]. This outcome is consistent with the aims of Stoicism, which seeks to cultivate inner peace and emotional stability by focusing on what is within our control and rationally understanding the nature of things [2].